AGP Executive Report

Fuel Prices at the Pump: GasBuddy spotlights bargain pockets for drivers in the week ending Sept. 19, with regular as low as $3.95 in Texas County and E85 dipping to $1.88 in Martin County, while premium and diesel remain higher in many places (diesel lows include $5.76 in Sherburne County and $5.89 in Wood County). Diesel Pressure for Farmers: On-highway diesel averaged $6.285/g as harvest ramps up, up from $5.97 the prior week and more than $2.50 year over year; farm diesel averaged $5.45/g on Sept. 4, with global shipping and refining disruptions cited. Refinery & Global Market Drivers: Multiple reports tie recent gasoline and diesel moves to refinery outages, crude price swings, and Middle East shipping risk. Grid Investment: The U.S. Department of Energy is funding Indiana power grid upgrades with $175 million, part of broader efforts to modernize aging infrastructure. Policy & Trade: U.S. trade envoy Jamieson Greer says Washington is “comfortable” with Canada and sees no urgency for a new deal. Nuclear Oversight: Nonproliferation experts urge Congress to oppose the U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation deal over enrichment safeguards concerns.

Oil & Gas Prices: GasBuddy and AAA data show gasoline climbing again, with the national average up about 18.5 cents per gallon over the past week, while some regions (including Southern California) cite tight inventories and ongoing supply disruptions. Market Backdrop: Global stocks stayed mixed as a bond sell-off pushed U.S. Treasury yields to multi-year highs, pressuring risk assets; oil slipped early on hopes for progress around the Strait of Hormuz. Policy & Politics: A Senate vote failed to advance a war powers resolution tied to the Iran conflict, with lawmakers explicitly linking the fight to diesel and gasoline prices. Diesel Export Debate: Sen. Chuck Grassley urged a temporary gasoline/diesel tax pause for drivers but argued the oil industry should lower prices, while diesel export restrictions remain a live political flashpoint. Power & Renewables: Fervo Energy reported “First Power” at its Cape Station enhanced geothermal project in Utah, a milestone for utility-scale geothermal. Infrastructure & Trade: EXIM signed a framework to mobilize up to $7B for Argentina’s critical minerals and energy sectors.

US Fuel Prices Watch: GasBuddy spotlights bargain pockets as regular hits $3.89 in Big Stone County, SD, while diesel bottoms at $5.39 in Yankton County, SD and $5.97 in Cooper County, MO—showing how uneven supply and refinery conditions still drive local swings. Diesel Export Ban Debate: Europe is warning that a proposed 90-day US diesel export pause could tighten global supply and lift prices, with Politico noting the US supplies over half of Europe’s diesel imports. Cybersecurity for Energy: Texas RRC Commissioner Wayne Christian urged oil and gas firms to harden defenses after federal warnings and Coast Guard/FBI actions tied to cyber compromises on Texas-bound energy tankers. Gulf Shipping Risk to Prices: A Permutable analysis says disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has surged European diesel prices and could feed into inflation and borrowing costs. US-Argentina Energy Push: The US Ex-Im Bank will make up to $7B in loans to support Argentina’s oil, gas, mining, and infrastructure using American equipment and services. Ukraine Energy Cooperation: Ukraine’s PM discussed steps to boost air defense and expand US LNG purchases ahead of the heating season. Markets & Macro: Oil and bond yields remain tightly linked as investors weigh Middle East risk and higher rates.

Diesel Export Fight: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a Trump-backed diesel export ban “doesn’t work,” warning it could cut refining output and push up gasoline and jet fuel prices. Midterm Pressure: Diesel prices are at record highs and Republicans are split as the White House weighs a short-term ban amid voter anger over fuel costs. Iran Shockwaves: Markets jumped as Iran vowed never to surrender and talks remained uncertain, keeping oil and Treasury yields volatile. Gulf Workarounds: Despite the Iran war, Gulf producers are keeping oil moving via alternative routes and pipeline capacity—but the workarounds are getting more expensive. South Korea Gas Plant: South Korea picked a $22.3B, 6.3GW Texas gas-fired power complex as its first major U.S. investment tied to a $350B pledge, aimed at powering data centers and chip fabs. U.S.-China Trade Truce: Trump welcomed Xi in Washington as the U.S. extended the trade truce, easing tariff escalation risk that can spill into energy demand expectations. Argentina Energy Deal: The U.S. will provide up to $7B in loans to back Argentina rail, pipelines, ports, and power tied to oil, gas, and critical minerals.

Diesel Export Fight: Former Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette warned that a Trump-backed U.S. diesel export ban would send a “terrible investment signal,” as diesel prices stay near record highs and Treasury/DOE weigh whether a full or partial ban could actually work. Market Pulse: Oil slipped on rising Gulf supplies and Iran-talk hopes, but Treasury yields jumped as crude pushed back above $100, lifting mortgage and borrowing costs. IEA Pressure: Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. may leave the IEA unless it reforms its climate focus. Local Energy Costs: Michigan reported a 56.6% year-over-year gas price jump, while construction groups warned soaring diesel is squeezing jobsites. Data Center Backlash: Rural Americans increasingly oppose data centers, with concerns about higher home energy costs and quality of life. Policy/Permitting: Arizona lawmakers demanded transparency over potential data-center proposals on federal lands. Agriculture Relief: Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry issued a diesel emergency order letting farmers use dyed off-road fuel on highways during harvest.

Heating Oil Shock: Families in Pennsylvania are bracing for winter after heating-oil prices nearly doubled over the past year, with one retailer citing jumps from about $3.27/gal last year to roughly $5.49 this week, pushing some households to pay $1,100+ to fill tanks. Gas Prices Up: Tennessee’s average gasoline price rose 14.5 cents in a week to about $4.05/gal, while diesel averages climbed to roughly $6.49/gal nationwide. Iran Talks vs. Threats: Oil slid after Trump said U.S. officials had “very good” meetings with Iranian envoys at the UN, reviving hopes for an off-ramp even as he renewed “annihilation” threats in his UN speech. Diesel Supply Pressure: Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan backed a temporary halt to U.S. diesel exports as diesel hit record levels (about $6.53/gal average Tuesday), citing tighter global supplies tied to Middle East and refinery disruptions. Nuclear Power for Industry: The NRC held a public hearing on Dow’s Seadrift nuclear project in Texas, proposing four small modular reactors to replace aging cogeneration and supply on-site power and steam. EPA Power-Plant Rules: White House and lawmakers moved to counter Trump EPA rollbacks of power-plant emissions rules, aiming to restore the agency’s core mission. Global Energy Diplomacy: The U.S., Japan, and South Korea reaffirmed North Korea denuclearization goals while expanding cooperation that includes energy and supply-chain resilience.

U.S.-Cuba Fuel Pressure: Cuba’s deputy foreign minister says U.S. fuel cutoffs are triggering repeated blackouts, with millions losing power and residents reporting days without water or electricity, as the CIA reportedly expands a Cuba task force. Climate vs. Gas Power: Climate Week protests link AI data centers to climate chaos, spotlighting Amazon’s plan for a natural gas-burning power plant tied to a major Texas data center buildout. Arctic Security & Rare Earths: The U.S., Denmark and Greenland signed an Arctic security agreement at the UN, boosting U.S. control over the security perimeter around Greenland’s rare-earth resources and moving related stocks sharply. Oil Market & Iran Risk: Oil hovered around $100 as U.S.-Iran diplomacy hopes eased pressure; still, Trump used UN remarks to threaten Iran while pushing for an energy-infrastructure ceasefire concept with Russia/Ukraine talks. Gas Prices at the Pump: Fuel costs stayed volatile—Illinois averages rose to about $4.88/gallon and national gasoline to about $4.44, while diesel climbed to roughly $6.49—fueling renewed calls for gas tax suspensions and diesel export limits. Policy & Power Plant Rules: A UN chief warned “Big Oil” treats the atmosphere as an “open sewer,” while EPA rollback claims say power-plant emissions rule changes would cut costs, despite health and climate concerns.

US Fuel & Oil Markets: Oil slid to a 12-day low as Brent fell about 3.4% and Wall Street cheered easing crude and bond yields, even as prices stay sensitive to Middle East shipping risk. Middle East Energy Risk: Ukraine struck Russia’s Kuibyshev oil refinery in Samara, underscoring how refinery attacks are tightening fuel supply and raising costs. Policy & Power Supply: South Korea confirmed its first US investment: a Texas gas combined-cycle plant (Encinal) aimed at surging electricity demand from semiconductors and AI data centers. Trade & Sanctions: India’s refiners may cut Russian crude purchases after a new US sanctions law that also threatens tariffs on countries buying Russian energy. US-China Minerals Leverage: A Trump-Xi summit is expected to stay relatively restrained on tariffs, with China’s rare-earth dominance limiting Washington’s options. Grid/Storage Industry Watch: Fluence Energy faced fresh investor scrutiny after updates about problems at its Houston supply-chain facility. Consumer Pressure: GasBuddy reports show wide local price swings, while some retailers moved to limit motor oil sales amid lubricant shortages and record base-oil prices. Campaign Talk: Calls are growing for a US diesel export ban, but economists warn any relief could be short-lived and disruptive.

Nuclear & Industrial Power: Kairos Power and Samsung C&T signed a binding term sheet for up to $100M plus engineering support to help deploy Kairos’ fluoride salt-cooled KP-FHR, starting with the Hermes 2 demonstration plant in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Grid & Cost Pressure: A new analysis warns winter home heating costs could jump nearly 9% this year, with heating oil projected to rise from $3.68/gal (Oct–Dec 2025) to $5.66/gal (Oct–Dec 2026), tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Oil Market Risk: Another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, with minor injuries reported, as shipping risk keeps crude sensitive and prices slide on hopes for UN sidelines diplomacy. US Fuel Prices: GasBuddy and AAA data show fuel prices climbing again—Los Angeles’ regular average hit $6.218 (34 straight days up), while Minnesota’s average rose to $4.39/gal and diesel averages topped $6/gal in multiple states. Policy & Renewables: A Rhode Island judge ordered the EPA to revive a $7B Solar for All grant program after finding the agency exceeded its authority when it canceled it in 2025. Data Centers Backlash: Opposition to data centers is spreading beyond politics, with rural communities citing water, farmland, and power bill impacts even as job interest rises.

Middle East Risk to U.S. Energy: The State Department urged Americans to rethink travel to the Middle East as Iran tensions rise after Houthi missile/drone claims on Riyadh, with Strait of Hormuz reopening conditions still in play—an issue that can quickly swing oil and fuel prices. Gas Prices at the Polls: AAA and local reports show gas and diesel costs climbing again, including record-high diesel in parts of Louisiana and higher pump prices in Kentucky and Baton Rouge, fueling voter frustration as the Iran conflict drags on. Oil Market Logistics: A shortage of supertankers is making long-haul crude trades more expensive, raising the cost of supplying Asia and increasing the risk that some distant cargoes get skipped. Power & Grid Cyber Threats: U.S. agencies warn that AI is helping attackers target industrial control systems at energy and water facilities, raising the stakes for grid resilience. Aviation Fuel Pressure: American, United, and Southwest signaled flight cuts as jet fuel costs run higher than planned, threatening profit margins. Policy Watch: EPA moves to repeal power-plant carbon rules, while Congress debates who should pay for data-center power infrastructure.

Middle East Risk: Iran’s military command warned of a prolonged response against U.S. bases and interests if the U.S. or allies launch a new attack, as Washington also issued a fresh Middle East security alert amid rising regional tensions. Trade & Energy Policy: U.S. and China kicked off trade talks in New York ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, with negotiators expected to cover trade, investment, AI, and the Iran war; the U.S. also delayed new tariff announcements until after the meeting. Nuclear Power Push: NextEra secured up to $1.9B in DOE loan support to restart Iowa’s shuttered Duane Arnold nuclear plant, targeting early 2029 operations and adding reliable capacity as electricity demand rises. Fuel Prices on the Ground: GasBuddy data for the week ending Sept. 12 showed pockets of lower prices, including E15 at $3.59/gal in Duplin County and diesel at $5.61/gal in Douglas County, while overall prices stayed sensitive to Middle East shipping risk and refinery conditions. Gas Market Drivers: Multiple reports tied current gasoline and diesel levels to crude above $100, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and domestic supply factors like refinery utilization and inventories.

Hormuz Oil Security: Iran’s armed forces spokesman rejected CENTCOM’s claim that U.S. forces helped move 1B+ barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it “false and ridiculous,” as CENTCOM says mine clearance and coordinated protection are keeping shipments flowing. Grid Reliability: The U.S. Department of Energy issued an emergency order to reduce blackout risk in South Carolina and North Carolina, authorizing Duke Energy Carolinas to dispatch resources and run backup generation. Diesel Shock Hits U.S. Economy: Diesel prices hit record highs, with Sen. Chuck Grassley urging Trump to consider emergency action as trucking costs surge and consumers feel the squeeze. Oil Market Watch: Oil prices stayed volatile near $100+ after August gains tied to Asian demand and speculators, while concerns linger over Saudi export pressure and Middle East shipping disruptions. Venezuela Oil Deal: Venezuela’s interim president signed a memorandum with TotalEnergies, adding to a flurry of new oil agreements after the political shift. U.S. Energy Policy & Power Plants: EPA’s rollback of power-plant climate rules is shifting impacts toward states, while U.S. lawmakers debate data-center energy cost relief.

Hormuz Security: CENTCOM says more than 1 billion barrels have cleared the Strait of Hormuz in recent months with U.S. support, citing cleared lanes, mine removal, and 2,000+ commercial transits, while Iran is said to have exported “zero barrels” under an “ironclad blockade.” Gas Prices: AAA put the Sept. 18 U.S. gasoline average at $4.4687/gal as Middle East tensions keep pressure on crude and pump costs. Politics & Energy Costs: A report says Trump privately understands Iran-war decisions are hurting Republicans ahead of midterms, even as he keeps a public line that politics won’t drive policy. UN Meetings & Oil: Trump is set to address the U.N. General Assembly and meet Venezuela’s interim leader Delcy Rodriguez, with the talks tied to a U.S.-Venezuela oil deal Trump says boosts U.S. control of Caribbean reserves. Border Infrastructure: DHS is eyeing three new Border Patrol stations in Arizona (Three Points, Casa Grande, Sonoita), each projected to cost $100M+ and house up to 1,000 agents. Tribal Energy Funding: A Q&A highlights a $100M fund aimed at closing tribal energy’s early-stage development gap. Local Pump Watch: GasBuddy spotlights lowest midgrade and diesel prices in multiple counties for the week ending Sept. 12, underscoring how uneven costs remain nationwide.

Data Center Energy Costs Fight: The Senate blocked the Ratepayer Protection Act, with Sen. Martin Heinrich saying Congress needs “real legislation with real teeth” to curb AI data-center power price hikes. EPA Power-Plant Rules: The Trump EPA moved to repeal power-plant carbon standards, drawing lawsuits from environmental groups and raising new uncertainty for coal and gas generation compliance. Middle East Oil Shock: Iran claimed it hit a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S.-Iran conflict keeps pressure on shipping and fuel prices; analysts say oil could be volatile even if worst-case scenarios haven’t fully hit. Pump Prices at Home: Drivers faced renewed gas and diesel pain in multiple states, with reports of diesel topping $6 in places like Alabama and broader warnings of more increases. Critical Minerals in Waste: A new NSF-funded push targets rare earths and other minerals hidden in coal ash and mine waste, aiming to recover them with less energy and fewer harsh chemicals. Grid Cybersecurity & AI: A new analysis argues AI makes grid cyber risk faster and cheaper to exploit, shifting the focus to who can inspect, patch, and recover critical systems.

Offshore Wind Setback: New analysis says U.S. offshore wind is stuck in “stagnation,” with lease cancellations and no new federal lease auctions pushing the outlook negative through 2028. Data Center Cost Fight: A Senate block killed the Ratepayer Protection Act, after a House win, as Sen. Martin Heinrich said it didn’t protect consumers enough. Winter Energy Bills: A new forecast warns heating costs could jump nearly 9% this winter, driven by higher electricity and heating-oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Geothermal Boost: Mazama Energy raised $135M for its Newberry superhot geothermal project, targeting record temperatures and faster drilling progress. AI on the Grid: Xeal plans “edge inference” compute by using idle EV charging capacity, aiming to bring new compute online without new water hookups. Fuel Watch: GasBuddy reports show diesel and gasoline prices remain volatile by county, with some areas seeing notable week-to-week swings.

Middle East Oil Risk: Iran’s IRGC said a “violating” tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and warned that illegal passage will bring “destruction,” as Seoul also signaled it won’t deploy troops in a way that draws it into the U.S.-Iran war. Fuel Prices at the Pump: Gas prices climbed again, with AAA citing a national regular average of $4.44 a gallon (up from $4.37 Thursday) and local reports showing some Kansas City-area stations above $4, raising fears of $5. Crude and Markets: Oil fell for a third straight session but stayed above $100; Brent and WTI eased as investors looked for alternative routes for Middle East barrels, lifting Asian shares and helping Wall Street rebound. Policy and Power: The EPA’s rollback of power-plant greenhouse gas rules is drawing backlash over public health impacts, while the Senate advanced the MORE American Fuel Act to modernize uranium enrichment licensing. Clean Energy Moves: Oregon’s PacWave South wave-energy test facility opened, and DOE backed a Geothermal Center of Excellence at the National Laboratory of the Rockies. Nuclear Fuel Legislation: Lummis’ MORE American Fuel Act cleared the Senate EPW committee on a bipartisan vote.