AGP Executive Report

Middle East Oil Shock: Fresh Gulf drone attacks kept oil and bond yields elevated, with Brent around $110 and U.S. crude near $102 as markets priced in longer shortages—then sentiment wobbled again after Trump said he paused a planned Iran strike to allow talks. Gas Prices at Home: The pump hit a new pain point, with regular gasoline averaging above $4.50 in May, adding roughly $100/month to a typical household since early February. Sanctions & Supply Levers: The U.S. extended temporary Russia sanctions relief for a third straight month, letting “stranded at sea” Russian oil move to energy-vulnerable countries—while the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to drive volatility. Power Sector Dealmaking: NextEra (FPL) announced a roughly $67B plan to buy Dominion Energy, betting on AI-driven demand. Policy & Markets: Global stocks slipped as oil climbed, and the week’s theme stayed clear: geopolitics is still steering U.S. energy costs.

Middle East Flashpoint: Trump says he’s called off a planned Tuesday strike on Iran after Gulf allies asked for more time, as negotiations continue—keeping Hormuz supply risk and oil-price volatility front and center. Power Sector Deal: NextEra Energy agreed to buy Dominion Energy in a mostly stock deal worth about $67B, a move that would reshape the East Coast grid and faces state and federal regulatory review. Gas Prices Watch: Alabama’s average gas fell 0.6 cents to $4.04/gal, but analysts warn Memorial Day could bring another spike if oil tensions worsen; nationally, gasoline is still around $4.47 and diesel about $5.62. Innovation Funding: NSF is extending its Regional Innovation Engines with $360M in new funding over three years for eight regions. Markets & Mood: U.S. stocks finished mixed—Dow hit another record while tech dragged—amid lingering inflation and oil uncertainty. Local Energy Costs: Virginia officials are raising questions about the NextEra-Dominion merger’s impact on customer bills.

Middle East Shock to Markets: Oil jumped again after Trump’s “clock is ticking” warning on Iran and a drone strike hit the UAE’s only nuclear plant, while the Strait of Hormuz stayed mostly shut—pushing Brent above $110 and lifting bond yields as investors priced longer inflation pressure. Sanctions & Shipping Pressure: The U.S. Navy blockade on Iranian shipping continues, turning back dozens of vessels, but some empty tankers still slip through, keeping Iran’s exports from fully freezing. Grid Affordability Fight: A new U.S. electricity affordability plan highlights rising residential bills, utility shutoffs, and the squeeze from grid upgrades, AI-driven demand, and higher gas costs. Energy Infrastructure Moves: The Southern Ute Tribe secured a first-ever Tribal Energy Resource Agreement, expanding tribal control over energy development. LNG & Data Center Demand: A new MoU targets U.S. LNG deliveries into Türkiye, while engine-maintenance deals for Texas data centers underscore how power demand is reshaping energy services. Policy Watch: A U.S. Russian oil sanctions waiver expired again, reimposing pressure as global refiners scramble.

US-Iran/Hormuz Pressure: A drone strike hit the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant, sparking a fire at an electrical generator and underscoring how fragile the Iran-war ceasefire remains as both sides still look far apart on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Gas Prices at the Pump: With markets jittery over potential shipping disruptions, drivers are seeing elevated, volatile fuel costs—AAA puts Sunday U.S. regular at about $4.51/gal and diesel near $5.65, while local GasBuddy reports show midgrade lows like $4.50 in Lamoille County and regular lows like $4.35 in Santa Cruz County for the week ending May 9. Politics Meets Energy Costs: A CBS News poll finds Americans increasingly pessimistic and more likely to cite gas prices as a financial hardship, adding heat to Trump’s inflation and pump-price messaging. Sanctions/Trade Signals: The U.S. let a Russian oil sanctions waiver lapse, tightening the flow of sanctioned barrels as the Iran situation keeps supply risk front and center. Local Disruption Watch: Cuba’s government says it has “absolutely no” fuel oil and diesel, with long blackouts continuing—another reminder of how quickly energy shocks can cascade.

LNG Diplomacy in Texas: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright toured QatarEnergy’s Golden Pass LNG in Sabine Pass, underscoring LNG’s role in energy security as the project ramps toward 18 MTPA with Qatar, ExxonMobil, and U.S. support. Iran Talks Stall, Strait Risk Lingers: Iran’s foreign minister says “no trust” in Washington is blocking negotiations and that talks move only with a “serious” U.S. offer, keeping pressure on the Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire diplomacy remains shaky. Sanctions Backtrack on Russian Oil: The Trump administration let a sanctions waiver for Russian seaborne oil expire May 16, tightening rules again even as Iran-linked supply fears keep markets jumpy. Cuba Energy Crisis Deepens: Cuba faces rolling blackouts and near-empty reserves as the U.S. blocks most oil imports, with fuel diverted to hospitals and critical services. Nuclear Workforce Push: Washington State University won DOE funding for its “Reactor Ready” initiative to train workers for the nuclear sector. Cost Relief for Oil Shock: South Korea begins a second round of payments to the bottom 70% of earners to blunt rising oil-price pressure.

UK Legal Blockade: A Supreme Court ruling is forcing UK planners to consider downstream climate impacts before approving new oil and gas projects in the Weald, a win for Sarah Finch and the Weald Action Group. Iran-Driven Price Pressure: In the U.S., fuel costs stay jumpy as Strait of Hormuz fears linger; GasBuddy’s week ending May 9 shows scattered “lowest” deals (regular dipping to $3.99 in Boone County; diesel as low as $4.49 in Whitfield County; E85 under $3.00 in places like Pope County). Sanctions Waiver Lapse: The U.S. let a Russian seaborne oil sanctions waiver expire without renewal, a move tied to earlier efforts to soften Iran-related supply shocks. Geopolitics Meets Domestic Politics: Trump returned from Beijing facing fresh scrutiny over inflation and gas prices, while Iran talks remain clouded by trust issues. Energy Litigation: A federal court tossed an offshore drilling lawsuit in California’s Santa Barbara Channel, clearing the way for continued oil flow.

Cuba-U.S. Legal Push: The U.S. is preparing to indict former Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of the Brothers to the Rescue planes, with sources saying the move could be announced in Miami around Cuban Independence Day—while a key victim’s family member says he’s skeptical the case will hold. Middle East Energy Shock: Oil jumped again as Iran and the U.S. trade blame and Iran says it “cannot trust” Washington; Trump also floated a 20-year nuclear moratorium while rejecting Iran’s latest peace terms, keeping Strait of Hormuz fears front and center. Gas Prices at Home: The Iran-driven spike is showing up in U.S. budgets—gas prices are up for a seventh straight week, and states are scrambling with tax breaks and emergency measures for Memorial Day travel. Policy/Industry Watch: Baker Hughes says U.S. drillers added rigs for a fourth straight week, even as markets react to the risk of a longer Iran standoff.

Cuba-U.S. Pressure: CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s surprise Havana visit is drawing fresh scrutiny as Cuba battles blackouts and fuel shortages, while U.S. officials also weigh charging former Raul Castro over a decades-old shootdown incident. Energy Crisis on the Island: Reuters reports Cuba’s grid suffered a partial collapse, leaving much of the east in the dark, with Havana blaming the U.S. blockade. Iran Shock to Markets: Oil is climbing again as the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained and Trump rejects Iran’s “unacceptable” peace proposal, rattling stocks and bonds worldwide. Gas Prices at the Pump: The U.S. average for gas is up sharply—April hit the 6th-highest monthly level in nearly four years—keeping affordability pressure front and center. Nuclear for AI Demand: DOE announced $94M for small modular reactor deployment to support grid capacity for AI-driven power growth. Canada Pipeline Push: Alberta and Ottawa moved forward on carbon-pricing terms tied to a new pipeline aimed at expanding Asian crude exports.

Middle East Energy Shock: The UAE says it will fast-track a new West-East oil pipeline through Fujairah, doubling export capacity by 2027—an explicit move to bypass a Strait of Hormuz that Iran has effectively restricted since late February. US–China Energy Signal: As Trump wraps up talks with Xi, he says China wants to buy U.S. oil and that the two sides also aligned on keeping Hormuz open (and pushing China to limit support for Iran). Market Pressure: Oil stays elevated as diplomacy stalls and Trump signals less patience with Iran; gold slid to a one-week low as higher oil feeds inflation fears and lifts Treasury yields. On-the-Ground Cost Reality: AAA warns drivers that “stretching” gas and delaying maintenance to save money can backfire during peak travel, with Memorial Day expected to bring heavy road demand. Local Power Politics: Georgia’s Public Service Commission race spotlights who controls utility decisions that shape electricity prices and climate outcomes.

Cuba Energy Crisis: Cuba’s leader says the country has run out of fuel and accepted a $100M U.S. humanitarian aid offer, even as the island’s grid suffered another partial collapse and eastern provinces stayed dark. Middle East Oil Shock: U.S.-China leaders again backed keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, but oil supply losses tied to the Iran war keep pressure on prices and shipping. Gas Prices at the Pump: AAA puts regular gas around $4.53 nationally, while local “cheapest” reports show pockets of relief—still, volatility remains the story. EV Momentum: Retailers say high gas prices are driving fresh EV interest, with EV searches up and some buyers shifting plans. Solar Manufacturing Push: Canadian Solar started trial HJT cell production in Indiana and plans to scale U.S. output, betting on reshoring demand. Policy & Power Plants: The EPA moved to relax coal-plant toxic wastewater limits, arguing demand is spiking—an ongoing fight over how to balance reliability, cost, and pollution.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: A British maritime agency says a vessel was seized off the UAE and is now bound for Iranian waters, as Iran’s blockade and U.S. counter-blockade keep disrupting oil and LNG flows. Oil Prices & Markets: Oil edged up as traders watched the Trump–Xi summit for any Iran de-escalation signal, while global inflation pressure remains in the background. U.S. Energy Costs: Gas prices stay elevated and are feeding into grocery inflation, with fuel surcharges showing up for retailers. Critical Minerals Push: The U.S. and South Africa held high-level talks in Johannesburg on critical mineral deals, aiming to reduce China’s grip on key supply chains. Energy Tech & Control: Canada’s data-center boom is colliding with a tougher question—who controls the data when infrastructure depends on foreign tech. Nuclear vs Data Centers (Utah): In Box Elder County, a nuclear “ecosystem” plan is moving forward with far less backlash than a nearby data-center fight. Food Supply Shock: USDA forecasts point to a half-century low wheat crop as drought hits the breadbasket, adding another pressure point to energy-linked inflation.

Iran Talks Stumble: President Trump says the Iran ceasefire is on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal, as officials describe offers to dilute and move highly enriched uranium—while markets keep pricing in Hormuz disruption risk. Inflation Pressure: U.S. producer prices jumped the most in four years, adding to the case that rates may stay higher longer as the Iran-driven energy shock ripples beyond gasoline. Oil Market Tightness: EIA’s new global security reporting frames Hormuz as effectively closed since the war began, with Brent up sharply and inventories drawing fast; futures fell slightly on the day but the supply outlook remains tense. Policy Response: The House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced a bill to revive a State Department energy diplomacy bureau focused on critical minerals and energy security. Energy Security Politics: Separate polling finds Americans strongly oppose AI data centers near them—more than they oppose nuclear plants—highlighting how power demand fears are shaping the debate. Defense/Industry: The Navy is repositioning Zumwalt-class destroyers for hypersonic strike roles, while Iraq moves to modernize layered air defenses.

Iran War & Shipping Shock: Trump says the Iran ceasefire is on “life support” after Tehran’s latest proposal, while a Chinese supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude reportedly tries to pass the Strait of Hormuz—keeping global oil flows and prices jittery. Gas Prices & Politics: Pump prices are rising again, and Trump is floating federal gas tax relief; the idea is gaining traction in Congress even as lawmakers warn about lost revenue. US-China Trade Push: Trump heads to Beijing with Treasury chief Scott Bessent in South Korea first, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in tow, as both sides try to manage trade, tech, and Iran-linked pressure. Energy Security Shift: Europe’s LNG dependence on the U.S. keeps growing as Middle East turmoil tightens supply, while EU Russian LNG imports hit the highest level since 2022. Local Energy Reality Check: A Virginia solar project was delayed after it filed interconnection paperwork to the wrong powerline—pushing construction out years.

Iran Talks, Oil Prices: Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal, insisting the goal is still blocking Iran’s nuclear program—not easing Americans’ finances—while oil futures jumped on renewed supply worries tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Gas Tax Fight: As pump pain continues, Trump is pushing Congress for a temporary federal gas tax suspension; a new Senate bill would pause the tax for 90 days (with an extension option) and also cover diesel. Sanctions Pressure: Treasury rolled out fresh sanctions on firms and individuals accused of helping Iran ship oil to China, targeting networks across Hong Kong, the UAE, and Oman. Prices on the Ground: AAA reports national gas around the mid-$4s, with some areas in western Pennsylvania still below the regional average even as volatility remains high. Power & Policy: Wisconsin energy leaders say growth depends on balancing generation sources and upgrading transmission to meet demand. Fed Leadership: The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as a Fed governor, setting up the next step toward a Fed chair transition.

Hormuz Tension Escalates: The U.S. rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal, and Trump called the truce “on life support,” keeping the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and reigniting supply worries as oil jumped about 2% and Brent pushed near $105. Shipping Disruption: A supertanker that exited the Persian Gulf appeared to U-turn back into the Gulf of Oman after nearing a U.S. naval blockade line tied to Iranian shipping. Sanctions & Pressure: The U.S. imposed new sanctions on firms and people aiding Iran oil shipments to China ahead of Trump’s Beijing talks with Xi. Emergency Oil Response: Washington is loaning 53.3 million barrels from the SPR to major companies, and a first shipment of U.S. emergency oil is headed to Türkiye. Gas Prices at Home: Trump floated suspending the federal gas tax as AAA reported the national regular average at $4.52, with New York up to $4.59. Global Ripple: Asia braces for a second wave of energy shocks as governments struggle with subsidies and higher costs.

Iran Ceasefire Fallout: Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal, keeping the Strait of Hormuz risk front and center and pushing Brent back above $104. Gas Tax Push: With the national average around $4.52/gal, Trump wants to suspend the federal gas tax “until it’s appropriate,” but Congress would have to approve it—while analysts warn the relief could be modest and revenue losses real. Market Mood: Even as oil rises, U.S. stocks edged toward fresh records, reflecting earnings strength and a still-resilient economy. Grid Stress: PJM warned data-center demand plus plant retirements could force deliberate power cuts during peak periods, raising the odds of rationing. Regulatory/Market Integrity: Separate probes are looking into suspiciously timed oil futures trades ahead of major U.S.-Iran announcements. Defense Electrification: Xos is set to demo mobile EV fast-charging for the Air Force’s Global Strike Command.